Americans won’t face long-term gas price hikes despite Iran’s threats to close the vital Strait of Hormuz following U.S. strikes on their nuclear facilities, according to petroleum expert Patrick De Haan.
Key Takeaways
- GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan predicts any gas price spike from Middle East tensions would be temporary, potentially raising prices to $3.40-$3.50 per gallon
- The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global crude oil, making Iranian threats to close it significant but economically self-destructive
- Experts estimate oil prices could initially spike above $80 per barrel if tensions escalate, but would stabilize as Iran relies on the strait for its own economy
- Gas prices have already increased slightly nationwide, with Connecticut seeing an 8-cent rise to $3.19 per gallon over the past week
- China, which receives 40-50% of its oil through the strait, would likely pressure Iran to keep the vital shipping lane open
Expert Dismisses Fears of Sustained Price Surge
Following President Trump’s ordered strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, many Americans are concerned about potential impacts on their wallets at the gas pump. However, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, has moved quickly to calm fears of prolonged price hikes, despite Iranian parliamentary threats to close the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway serves as a critical chokepoint for global oil markets, with approximately one-fifth of the world’s crude oil passing through daily.
“If Iran mentions closing the Strait of Hormuz, you can see a quick spike in oil past the $80 barrel mark. That could bring a national average of $3.40 to $3.50. If they’re mildly successful in carrying that out, oil could go even higher, but it would likely be temporary,” said Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis.
Iran’s Economic Reality Limits Retaliatory Options
Despite the Iranian Parliament’s vote supporting closure of the Strait of Hormuz, economic realities make such a drastic move unlikely to be sustained. De Haan characterized potential price spikes as a “knee jerk” reaction that “would not last long.” The expert’s analysis highlights a crucial factor limiting Iran’s options: closing the strait would essentially amount to economic suicide for the Iranian regime itself, as their own oil exports rely on the same shipping lane they’re threatening to block.
“Think about it, China gets between 40 and 50% of their oil through there. That would be economic suicide to the Iranians,” said John Mohs.
This assessment was echoed by Vice President JD Vance, who questioned Iran’s willingness to harm its own economy through such actions. “Their entire economy runs through the Strait of Hormuz. If they want to destroy their own economy, it can cause disruption in the world. I think that would be their decision, but why would they do that?” said JD Vance.
Americans Already Feeling Price Pressure
While the predicted catastrophic price spikes may not materialize, Americans are already feeling the pinch of rising fuel costs. In Connecticut, gas prices have risen eight cents over the past week to an average of $3.19 per gallon. The timing is particularly challenging for many families, as this price increase is happening earlier than the typical summer surge. Some residents report having to make difficult budgetary choices as a result of the rising costs.
“I just had to literally divide my food costs, costs for the kids, to make sure I can adequately fit enough gas in my car,” said Karahi Hood.
This sentiment was shared by Ray Knighton, who expressed frustration at the broader inflationary environment: “It’s kind of ridiculous, you know, with the cost of everything going up constantly.”
Market Forces Likely to Stabilize Prices
De Haan’s analysis suggests that even if tensions escalate further, multiple economic factors would work to stabilize prices. The petroleum expert noted that any attempt by Iran to close the strait would face significant resistance from major oil importers like China, which has substantial economic leverage over Iran as a primary purchaser of Iranian oil. Additionally, other global producers could potentially increase output to offset disruptions, a common market response to supply constraints.
“Motorists will likely continue seeing a slow but steady increase in gas prices for now. You don’t really have to worry about massive spikes just yet,” said Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis.
For now, most industry experts are forecasting modest increases rather than dramatic spikes, with estimates suggesting prices could rise by 10 to 15 cents over the coming week. Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates offered an even more conservative prediction, suggesting a rise of just 3 to 5 cents in the coming days, barring significant escalation in the conflict. The ultimate impact on consumers’ wallets will largely depend on how Iran chooses to respond to President Trump’s decisive action against their nuclear program.
